Debt Deal Dynamics

May 31, 2023

For our beach investors… drink a Watermelon Mojito and get paid. 1M today could be around an extra 50k in one year with less risk than trading.

These are the best rates you can find in the fixed-income markets:

  • C.D.s (New Issues): 5.40% (1-year term)

  • U.S. Treasury Bonds: 5.47% (6-month period)

  • U.S. Treasury Zeros: 4.95% (9-month period)

  • Agency/GSE: 5.86% (20-year period)

  • Corporate (Aaa/AAA): 4.94% (9-month period)

  • Corporate (Aa/AA): 5.13% (9-month period)

  • Corporate (A/A): 6.64% (10-year period)

  • Corporate (Baa/BBB): 8.67% (3-year period)

  • Municipal (Aaa/AAA): 4.39% (3-month period)

  • Municipal (Aa/AA): 4.67% (6-month period)

  • Municipal (A/A): 4.89% (3-month period)

  • Taxable Municipal: 5.86% (3-month or 30-year period)

For our street investors… face the wall with A.I. sentiment analysis and adjust your trading for Today (May 31, 2023):

  1. U.S. Debt Ceiling and Budget Bill: The U.S. stock futures are set for a lower open ahead of a House vote on the budget deal. The budget bill's uncertainty and anxiety over Friday's non-farm payroll data, which could influence the June rate move, might weigh on the markets.

  2. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence has returned to a six-month low, which Bolvin Wealth Management views as a bullish contrarian indicator. This could spur market movement, especially if the budget bill passes and the debt ceiling issues are resolved.

  3. Sectoral Performance: During the previous session, consumer staple and energy stocks were among the worst decliners, while technology and consumer discretionary stocks gained ground. This might suggest sector rotation, with investors moving towards tech and discretionary stocks from staple and energy stocks.

  4. Futures: Futures are indicating a slight downtick ahead of the market opening, with the S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) falling 0.20% in pre-market trading.

  5. Economic Data: Today's economic calendar is packed with data related to mortgage applications, manufacturing activity, job openings, service sector outlook, and the Beige Book report.

  6. Volatility Index (VIX): Given the budget vote and the impending jobs data, it's reasonable to anticipate a spike in market volatility, which would likely be reflected in an increase in the VIX index.

Given these factors, it seems the market could see increased volatility today. For a more defensive stance, one might consider buying the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) on dips, mainly if the budget bill passes, which could potentially spur a relief rally. Monitoring the VIX to track market sentiment and potential swings would be prudent.

Finally, Wall Street favors tech stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and SoFi Technologies, suggesting that this sector might outperform in the coming days. In contrast, sectors like consumer staples and energy could face downward pressure.

Today’s company news. Anything to keep an eye out for? This is not financial advice, just a tracker for you to go into more details. Picks are selected using # A.I. models:

  1. Nvidia (NVDA): The stock is soaring after stronger-than-expected Q1 results and optimism about the company's opportunities in artificial intelligence (A.I.). The CEO, Jensen Huang, highlighted that the advent of A.I. is only in its beginning stages, with much more growth potential in the future. This and Nvidia's announced collaborations have made the stock a significant talking point on social media.

  2. SoFi Technologies (SOFI): The stock has risen following the news about the resumption of U.S. student loan payments in August. As one of the country's most active student loan servicers, SoFi could see loan originations return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. However, note that the stock has been in a downtrend since early February 2023 and would need to overcome several resistance points to start a significant rally.

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR): The company announced an A.I. conference on June 1, 2023, which seems to have driven its stock up. The conference will be opened by CEO Alex Karp, who will discuss the company's A.I. plans and presentations from potential and current customers of Palantir. This event could potentially create further bullish sentiment for PLTR.

Please do your research before making any investment decisions. This information is not financial advice.

Events

Earning reports: 

Salesforce (CRM): Salesforce has had a strong performance over the past year, with a 52-week price performance of +32.57%. Today's last trade was at $218.87, up 1.59%. Despite having a bearish Equity Summary Score of 1.9 (8 Firms), institutional ownership is high at 78.23%. Their revenue is $31.4B, with earnings per share at $0.21. The market capitalization is a robust $214.3B, reflecting its position as a dominant player in the software industry.

VMWare (VMW): VMWare's performance over the last 52 weeks was a modest +3.51%. The stock traded at $133.80 at the end of the day, with a marginal rise of 0.42%. The Equity Summary Score is neutral at 6.4 (7 Firms). Institutional ownership is relatively lower than others on this list, at 46.04%. Revenue for VMWare is $13.4B, with earnings per share of $3.09. VMW's market capitalization stands at $57.3B.

Veeva Systems (VEEV): Unlike Salesforce and VMWare, Veeva Systems has seen a negative 52-week price performance of -4.85%. Today's trade closed at $163.66, dropping by -1.10%. The Equity Summary Score is neutral at 5.3 (7 Firms). Despite the recent performance, institutional ownership is very high at 88.72%. They generated $2.2B in revenue, and their earnings per share stand at $3.00. Veeva Systems' market cap is $26.2B.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): CrowdStrike also showed a negative 52-week price performance of -4.93%. However, today's trade significantly increased, closing at $158.59, up by 2.90%. The Equity Summary Score is neutral at 6.4 (6 Firms). Institutional ownership is also significant at 66.54%. The company’s revenue is $2.2B, though it has negative earnings per share at -$0.79. CRWD's market capitalization is $37.6B.

Economic events:

  1. 7:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications: The MBA's Weekly Applications Survey analyzes mortgage application activity, which indicates housing and mortgage finance activity​.

  2. 8:50 AM ET - Susan Collins Speaks: Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will give closing remarks at a virtual Fed Listens event to discuss challenges and opportunities following specific disruptions.

  3. 9:45 AM ET - Chicago PMI: This index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region.

  4. 10:00 AM ET - JOLTS: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program produces data on job openings, hires, and separations.

  5. 10:00 AM ET - State Street Investor Confidence Index: This index quantitatively measures investor confidence or risk appetite by analyzing institutional investors buying and selling patterns.

  6. 11:30 AM ET - 4-Month Bill Auction: This is a public auction, held weekly by the U.S. Treasury, of federal debt obligations—specifically, Treasury bills (T-bills), with maturities ranging from one month to one year.

  7. 12:20 PM ET - Susan Collins Speaks: Susan Collins will again give opening remarks before a virtual Fed Listens event to discuss challenges and opportunities following the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  8. 1:30 PM ET - Patrick Harker Speaks: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker will participate in a fireside chat on the global macroeconomy and monetary conditions before the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

  9. 1:30 PM ET - Philip Jefferson Speaks: Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson will speak virtually on Financial Stability and the U.S. Economy at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector.

  10. 2:00 PM ET - Beige Book: This report published by the United States Federal Reserve Board eight times a year provides a qualitative review of economic conditions.