Fed Policy, Small Business Sentiment, Inflation, Futures, and International News

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These are the best rates you can find in the fixed-income markets:

• C.D.s (New Issues): 5.40% (1-year term)

• U.S. Treasury Bonds: 5.30% (3-month term)

• U.S. Treasury Zeros: 5.00% (9-month term)

• Agency/GSE: 5.87% (5-year term)

• Corporate (Aaa/AAA): 4.99% (9-month period)

• Corporate (Aa/AA): 5.64% (1-year period)

• Corporate (A/A): 5.79% (30-year term)

• Corporate (Baa/BBB): 8.01% (3-year term)

• Municipal (Aaa/AAA): 4.32% (10-year term)

• Municipal (Aa/AA): 4.55% (20-year term)

• Municipal (A/A): 4.44% (20-year term)

• Taxable Municipal: 5.75% (9-month term)

For our street investors… face the wall with A.I. sentiment analysis and adjust your trading for Today (June 12, 2023):

Anticipated Fed policy, small business sentiment, inflation, futures, and international news will play decisive roles in shaping today's market.

Federal Reserve's likely hiatus from interest rate hikes contributes to uncertain market sentiment. If rates remain at 5-5.25%, implications for SPY could be neutral or even slightly bullish due to easing pressure on corporate borrowing costs. Further rate increases could increase volatility, driving VIX upwards. While technology and growth stocks could face headwinds in this scenario, sectors such as financials could benefit.

Small business confidence shows improvement, but concerns over inflation persist. Sectorally, persistently high inflation could challenge consumer discretionary stocks, given their potential to weigh on consumer spending power, while defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples may weather these conditions better.

Futures showing positive momentum due to expectations of cooler inflation data is indicative of bullish sentiment for SPY. The market's seeming belief in a pause in rate hikes and a probable decrease in CPI is likely to temper recent inflation fears, providing a bullish backdrop for stocks and potentially dampening VIX. Tech and growth sectors stand to gain particularly if inflation fears abate.

International news also reveals critical insights. Rouble's depreciation amid lower oil prices could signal opportunities within the energy sector, given a potential recovery of oil prices over time. Russian volatility might also impact global risk appetite and VIX.

Nikkei's surge reveals strong momentum in technology shares, potentially spurring corresponding U.S. tech sector activity. Notably, SoftBank's move, to partnering with OpenAI and Intel Corp, may create further investment opportunities in the tech sector.

Finally, equity markets rising ahead of inflation data points to positive market sentiment. The current bullishness could maintain the upward trend for SPY and possibly lower VIX if the sentiment continues. Overall, careful monitoring of the Fed's meeting, inflation data, and global geopolitical trends will be key in driving trading decisions.