Prepare for Increased Volatility

For our beach investors… drink a Manhattan and get paid. 1M today could be around an extra 50k in one year with less risk than trading.

These are the best rates you can find in the fixed-income markets:

• C.D.s (New Issues): 5.40% (1-year term)

• U.S. Treasury Bonds: 5.24% (1-year period)

• U.S. Treasury Zeros: 5.15% (9-month period)

• Agency/GSE: 5.60% (2-year period)

• Corporate (Aaa/AAA): 5.35% (10-year term)

• Corporate (Aa/A.A.): 5.47% (9-month period)

• Corporate (A/A): 6.55% (9-month period)

• Corporate (Baa/BBB): 11.59% (5-year period)

• Municipal (Aaa/AAA): 4.19% (10-year term)

• Municipal (Aa/AA): 4.54% (20-year term)

• Municipal (A/A): 4.88% (20-year period)

• Taxable Municipal: 5.84% (30-year period)

For our street investors… face the wall with A.I. sentiment analysis and adjust your trading for Today (June 6, 2023):

1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF): Mixed economic data, including slowing service sector growth and lower input costs, alongside strong job data, introduces volatility. While these conditions might usually dampen investor sentiment, the anticipation of the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates mitigates some negative impact. Furthermore, a stronger-than-expected earnings season and the rally in megacap stocks could underpin SPY. Given the uncertain policy outlook and the upcoming inflation data, expect some choppiness in SPY trading.

2. RUT (Russell 2000 ETF): RUT, which is heavily composed of domestic firms, might experience a more significant impact from the current economic signals. The weaker service sector data could be more detrimental to the smaller companies within RUT. On the flip side, if interest rates hold steady, RUT could benefit from the lower borrowing costs that small businesses usually depend on.

3. DIA (Dow Jones ETF): DIA could feel the impact of the mixed data more acutely, especially considering Dow constituents like Apple and Chevron. The slip in Apple's stock after its product release might impact DIA negatively. Simultaneously, the drop in oil prices could weigh on energy constituents such as Exxon and Chevron, posing a downside risk to DIA.

4. Sectors: The tech sector could see some turbulence given the mixed news from Apple and Advanced Micro Devices. The energy sector, especially big oil, is under pressure from falling crude prices, posing a downside risk.

5. VIX (Volatility Index): Given the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting and mixed economic signals, expect a possible uptick. The fluctuations in oil prices and the anticipation of inflation data could contribute to increased market volatility, reflecting higher VIX levels.

   Overall, this pre-market news suggests a potential for increased market volatility, with differing impacts on significant indices and specific sectors. It highlights the importance of diversification and prudent risk management in active trading strategies.

Events

Earning reports today - pre-analysis: 

1. Casey's General Stores (CASY): Casey's General Stores' stock closed at $227.92, down 0.49% from the previous session. The stock's performance over the past 52 weeks shows an increase of 7.67%. The stock has an average volume of 243.2K shares and has high institutional ownership at 84.38%. The company's market capitalization is $8.5B, it has an annual dividend yield of 0.67%, and earnings per share of $12.02. It had $15.2B in revenue with a workforce of 42,481 full-time employees. Equity firms currently hold a neutral outlook on this stock.

2. JM Smucker (SJM): JM Smucker's stock ended the day at $148.96, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The stock had a strong performance over the past year, growing by 21.33%. Its average volume stands at 971.0K shares and has high institutional ownership at 74.86%. The company has a market cap of $15.9B and pays a relatively high annual dividend yield of 2.74%. It reported earnings per share of $6.64 and annual revenue of $8.3B. The company employs 6,700 people full-time, and equity firms currently rate the stock as bullish.

3. Ferguson (FERG): Ferguson's stock closed at $146.95, down by 0.55%. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock's performance shows an impressive gain of 23.09%. The stock has an average trading volume of 1.3M shares. Its institutional ownership is at 72.67%, and it has a market cap of $30.1B. The annual dividend yield stands at 2.32%, with earnings per share at $9.87 and an annual revenue of $30.0B. The company employs 36,000 people. Equity firms haven't provided a score for this stock yet.

4. Ciena (CIEN): Ciena's stock price is at $47.50, marking a decrease of 1.31%. Over the past year, the stock's performance was slightly negative, showing a decrease of 2.54%. Its average trading volume is high at 1.7M shares and has very high institutional ownership of 90.90%. The company's market cap is $7.1B. Unlike the others, it does not provide a dividend. Its earnings per share are $1.22, and its revenue is $3.8B. It employs 8,079 people full-time. The stock currently has a bearish outlook from equity firms.

Overall, while all four stocks have slightly declined in the most recent trading session, their performance over the past year varies. Ferguson has shown the strongest growth, but Ciena has slightly underperformed. As with all investing, it's crucial to consider a variety of factors beyond just recent price movements when deciding which stocks to add to a portfolio.