Surfing the Highs and Lows

For our beach investors… drink a Moscow Mule and get paid.

These are the best rates you can find in the fixed-income markets:

• CDs (New Issues): 1yr - 5.30%

• U.S. Treasury: 6mo - 5.39%

• U.S. Treasury Zeros: 9mo - 5.06%

• Agency/GSE: 3yr - 5.51%

• Corporate (Aaa/AAA): 10yr - 5.14%

• Corporate (Aa/AA): 1yr - 5.45%

• Corporate (A/A): 5yr - 6.50%

• Corporate (Baa/BBB): 3mo - 15.76%

• Municipal (Aaa/AAA): 10yr - 4.20%

• Municipal (Aa/AA): 20yr - 4.83%

• Municipal (A/A): 30yr+ - 4.75%

• Taxable Municipal: 30yr+ - 5.94%

For our street investors… face the wall with sentiment analysis and adjust your trading for Today (May 23rd, 2023):

The stock market today presents a challenging environment, as news of debt ceiling progress remains elusive. Investors should note that the S&P 500 is the most concentrated it's been in decades, indicating the increasing significance of major tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft. Speaking of Apple, it's currently closing in on a $3 trillion stock market valuation, which is a key point to monitor.

In other news, Lowe's has cut its annual sales and profit forecasts due to wavering demand, reflecting potential weaknesses in the retail sector. Gazprom, a major energy player, reports a 40% fall in its 2022 net profit, highlighting volatility in the energy market. The buzz around Uber partnering with Waymo in self-driving tech might create opportunities in the transportation sector.

Several countries are making key economic moves, such as Italy approving €2 billion in aid for flood-hit areas and Zimbabwe urging the government to loosen currency controls, which may impact the global economic landscape.

Sentiment Analysis

$SPY (S&P 500 ETF): Given the high concentration of the index and mixed earnings results, the sentiment leans towards caution. The uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling progress could lead to volatility. However, Apple's positive move and some other tech companies showing strength could balance the downside risks. Investors should stay vigilant about any progress in the debt ceiling talks, which may lead to immediate market reactions.

$VIX (Volatility Index): The elusive debt deal, Lowe's profit forecast cut, and Gazprom's net profit fall suggest an increase in market uncertainty, potentially pushing the VIX higher. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical and macroeconomic events which might escalate market volatility. It would be wise to prepare for potential market swings in both directions.

Today's Watch

• Keep a close eye on the progress of the US debt ceiling talks, which could significantly affect the market.

• Tech stocks, especially Apple as it nears a $3 trillion market valuation.

• Energy stocks, given Gazprom's report and ongoing fluctuations in energy prices.

• Considering Lowe's cut in its sales and profit forecast, the retail sector.

• Geopolitical moves, particularly Italy's aid to flood-hit areas and Zimbabwe's currency controls.

Today’s earning releases. What to expect?

Intuit Inc. (INTU): Intuit is showing strong EPS growth, Q/Q of 71% and past 5 years of 14%. However, there is a potential downside in the recent news about IRS considering setting up its own tax filing system, which could affect Intuit's market share. Investors should watch for comments about this development in their earnings call.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW): With recent news of lowered annual sales outlook due to weaker demand for DIY products and the Q/Q EPS decrease of -10.9%, investors should be cautious. The sales Q/Q are growing at 5.2% but overall, the company's forward P/E of 13.82 suggests a lower growth expectation.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW): Palo Alto Networks shows a robust Q/Q EPS growth of 180% and Sales Q/Q of 25.7%, but its high P/E ratio indicates a higher stock price relative to earnings. Investors should be keen on news around its cyber security products and how it plans to leverage on increased demand in this sector.

Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A): Agilent has shown steady growth, with a Q/Q EPS growth of 26.9%. The company is set to present at upcoming healthcare conferences, potentially influencing the stock's performance. The fact that they plan to appeal a decision on CRISPR patents could affect future profits, so investors should watch this closely.

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS): DICK's Sporting Goods shows EPS Q/Q decrease of -18.5% which could be a concern, however, their dividend yield of 3.16% could be attractive to income investors. They have also just reported their Q1 results, reaffirming their 2023 outlook.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ): BJ's shows good growth with a Q/Q EPS increase of 21.4% and Sales Q/Q of 13.1%. They have just announced their Q1 results, but investors should be wary with insider transactions showing a decrease of -4.63%.

Note: This is not financial advice but an analysis based on the data provided. Investors should do their own research before making any investment decisions.